Impressions of Shanghai - The Economy

The supposed economic slowdown in China is difficult to discern in Shanghai.

• Wherever there used to be a lot of people, there are still a lot of people, though I have been told that restaurants that used to turn over quickly, now just manage to be full.
• I have been told the real estate market is down by as much as 20%. To curb flipping, five years ago, the rule was two apartments per person; now it is one per married couple. It seems the government can easily influence the market.
• There are visibly fewer foreigners (i.e., non-East Asians) on the streets. The COVID lockdown had to be the main contributor. Other factors are harder to quantify, such as de-emphasizing English language education (not unlike efforts to de-emphasize math education in the US). More concerning is the brooding technology cold war between the US and China. As a direct consequence, an Intel colleague and friend, whose entire project was cut by Intel, but interestingly was picked up by a smaller US company, whose CEO surely doesn't go to White House roundtables.

A particularly interesting insight from a friend in finance is that all the doom and gloom about the Chinese economy that we read in the US is because the markets are betting against (i.e., shorting) China. There is no doubt China is not at the peak. The question is - how far and how long will the dip be?

On a different note, the highlight of my entire Shanghai visit was my very brief conversation with a Uighur Didi (rideshare) driver. After some minimal small talk, such as "Shanghai winters are damp and cold, aren't they?" I pointedly asked him if all the reports we hear in the US about Xinjiang are true. He mentioned that detentions and camps have decreased lately. His primary grievance, however, was the lack of freedom. I responded with a rhetorical, "Who is truly free anyway?" He expressed a preference for being a beggar abroad rather than driving in Shanghai, but lamented that the government would not issue him a passport. It reminded me that freedom can be as simple as a citizen's right to obtain a passport!

Wherever there used to be a lot of people; for example, on the East Nanjing Road Pedestrian Street(1st and 2nd below), and our fav Six Miles Cafe in Lujiazui (3rd), there are still at lot of people.